The rapidly deteriorating situation in Libya puts into clear perspective the remarkable achievements of the Egyptian People in peaceably deposing President Mubarak, and it is unmistakably clear to the Egyptian interim government that they must keep to their stated intention of creating a full democracy within the next few months, with the reins of government in the hands of the civil population, not the armed forces, and underlined by the discussions that took place when the Prime Minister, David Cameron, visited Egypt.
The whole region will have noted today the stiffening resolve of the international community. The region will have noted too the open talk of the military option, not only with US Forces now increasing its presence in the waters off Libya, but again, the PM, on the floor of the House of Commons today, making it clear that not only must a no-fly zone be established over Libya, but that other military options are also now being considered. When we look behind the language of diplomacy, we know only too well, that we are being prepared to commit our armed forces if this becomes necessary.
The Foreign Secretary, William Hague, spoke bluntly today in Geneva, as too did Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of the USA.
Ideally, the Libyan People will be able to remove Colonel Gaddafi without the involvement militarily of the Allies.
But that is clearly not going to be easy. With the death toll already standing on unconfirmed reports of between 1,000 and 2,000 people, this is surely going to increase.
When a no fly zone is established, this gives those countries enforcing the zone carte blanche to survey the territory. It also means that if they see an attempt by the Libyan Government to use its military hardware, it is almost certainly going to be a challenge to that no fly zone. Anti-aircraft batteries are a direct threat to a no-fly zone. So those are simply taken out. That leads to assessing other military hardware. Is any part of it capable of violating the zone ie by attacking aircraft that are enforcing the zone? If so, that too is taken out.
The admission today that the 'pot shot' at one of the British RAF C130 Hercules Transports rescuing British and Foreign Nationals actually struck closer to home than just hitting the outer fuselage, namely, managing to hit the helmet of the pilot, means that even small arms fire is also a direct threat!
Colonel Gaddafi's arranged interview with three Journalists from the BBC and ABC today shows us the problem. The interview was not at all surprising. What is far more ominous is the Jekyll and Hyde antics of one of his sons - appearing on state TV yesterday with all the calm and dignity of the voice of reason, speaking the Queen's English and highlighting his British education, and then the unofficial footage of the same man on top of a vehicle waving a heavy weapon in the air and inciting his followers to violence.
These are very dangerous times. Let us not under-estimate what is happening. Neither let us forget our troops in Afghanistan.
Ian Bradley Marshall
LIVERPOOL
28 February 2011
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Thank you Ian for your insightful take on the Middle Eatern difficulties and the aspects of it that you have brought to mind
ReplyDelete